Executive Summary

Delivered strong Q2 performance: originations $7.5B (+44% q/q, +15% y/y), net revenue $279.4M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.30, adjusted diluted EPS $0.66; adjusted net income $41.4M and adjusted EBITDA $58.0M—the best since 2021 .
EPS and revenue beat Wall Street: Primary EPS $0.66 vs $0.43 consensus; Revenue (S&P definition) $308.4M vs $297.0M consensus; both improved vs Q1 despite MSR valuation volatility; EPS beat is significant and likely estimate-reset catalyst* .
Origination segment swung to $23.4M net income (from $(2.9)M in Q1) on higher volumes; servicing delivered $27.3M net income despite $(41.3)M MSR valuation loss amid rate volatility .
Capital actions: Declared a special dividend of $0.25 per share (payable Sept 2, 2025) and repurchased 61,221 shares at $13.24 average before termination of the buyback plan tied to the pending Bayview merger .
No Q2 earnings call due to pending merger; management emphasized balanced model, purchase focus (89% of originations), and platform strength; merger and dividend are near-term stock narrative catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Origination momentum: Total originations $7.47B (+44% q/q, +15% y/y) with 21.4K units; origination net revenue rose to $242.5M and segment net income to $23.4M .
Purchase focus and recapture: 89% purchase mix vs MBA ~67%; purchase recapture 27%, refinance recapture 37%—supporting the customer-for-life strategy .
Efficiency and earnings quality: Adjusted net income $41.4M and adjusted ROAE 13.7%—both best since 2021; adjusted EBITDA $58.0M, reflecting improving profitability and scale benefits .

What Went Wrong

MSR valuation headwinds: $(41.3)M negative MSR mark (vs $(69.9)M in Q1; +$2.1M in Q2’24) amid rate volatility; servicing net revenue compressed to $43.3M vs $81.4M in Q2’24 .
Gain-on-sale margin moderation: Originations gain-on-sale margin declined q/q to 329 bps (from 376 bps), albeit up slightly y/y (+3 bps); pull-through margin dipped 1 bp q/q to 315 bps .
No live Q&A: Company did not host a Q2 call due to the pending Bayview transaction, limiting real-time guidance and color on trajectory .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)	$285.7	$198.5	$279.4
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.60	$(0.39)	$0.30
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.49	$0.35	$0.66
Total Originations ($USD Billions)	$6.53	$5.20	$7.47
Gain on Sale Margin on Originations (bps)	326	376	329
Return on Average Equity (%)	12.3%	(7.8%)	6.2%
Adjusted ROAE (%)	10.1%	7.0%	13.7%

Segment	Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Origination	Net Revenue ($USD Millions)	$208.8	$190.6	$242.5
Origination	Total Expenses ($USD Millions)	$211.9	$193.5	$219.2
Origination	Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$(3.1)	$(2.9)	$23.4
Servicing	Net Revenue ($USD Millions)	$81.4	$13.0	$43.3
Servicing	Total Expenses ($USD Millions)	$11.9	$17.5	$16.0
Servicing	Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$69.5	$(4.6)	$27.3

KPI	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
UPB of Servicing Portfolio ($USD Billions, period-end)	$89.09	$94.01	$96.28
Total Loans Sold ($USD Millions)	$5,787.3	$5,191.4	$6,813.5
Pull-Through Adjusted Locked Volume ($USD Millions)	$6,528.8	$5,862.8	$7,488.5
Gain on Sale Margin on Pull-Through (bps)	315	316	315
Purchase Origination (%)	92%	88%	89%
Purchase Recapture Rate (%)	27%	26%	27%
Refinance Recapture Rate (%)	22%	31%	37%

Estimates vs Actual	Consensus	Actual	Delta
Primary EPS (S&P Global, $)	0.4317*	0.66*	+0.23*
Revenue (S&P Global, $USD)	$297.0M*	$308.4M*	+$11.4M*

Note: Company-reported net revenue was $279.4M; S&P “Revenue” definition differs from company “net revenue” (likely excludes certain fair value marks/interest components). Values retrieved from S&P Global* .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Gain-on-sale margin (funded originations, bps)	Ongoing	Historical commentary ~330–340 bps (no formal guidance)	No formal guidance; commentary unchanged; Q2 actual 329 bps	Maintained
Dividend	Q2 2025	Special dividend $0.50 per share declared March 5, payable Mar 31, 2025	Special dividend $0.25 per share declared Aug 6, payable Sept 2, 2025	Lowered (special cash dividend size)
Earnings call	Q2 2025	Normal calls hosted in prior quarters	No conference call due to pending Bayview merger	Suspended
MSR retention (%)	Q2 2025	60% retained in Q1 2025	61% retained in Q2 2025	Slightly raised (operating metric)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
AI/technology initiatives	Expanded Guild IQ; leveraging AI to enhance productivity	Continued investments in product/technology; serving the homebuyer of the future	PR emphasizes platform strength; no new AI detail due to no call	Stable focus; less disclosure in Q2
Macro/interest rates	Anticipate rate headwinds; balanced model as natural hedge	Expect volatility; balanced model positioned for success	Rate volatility drove $(41.3)M MSR mark; balanced model highlighted	Ongoing volatility; hedge works
Purchase market & first-time buyers	Strong purchase focus; community-driven retail	Cautiously optimistic for spring/summer; focus on first-time buyers (Hispanic market)	89% purchase mix vs MBA 67%	Continued strength
MSR valuation/hedging	MSR gains in Q4; servicing income strong	Q1 MSR negative mark; origination serves as natural hedge	Q2 MSR negative mark; servicing still profitable	Volatile but managed
Regulatory/LO comp	—	No change expected in LO comp approach; will follow regulations	No new commentary (no call)	Neutral
M&A/Bayview merger	—	—	Pending merger highlighted; no call; special dividend	Active; transaction catalyst

Management Commentary

“Our team delivered... the strongest performance in many categories... despite a constrained and challenging market... best adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted return on average equity since 2021.” — Terry Schmidt, CEO .
“In the origination segment, we delivered origination growth of 44% quarter-over-quarter and 15% year-over-year, with expense and profitability metrics improving to levels we last delivered in 2022.” — Terry Schmidt, CEO .
Q2 actions: 89% purchase originations; servicing UPB $96.3B; adjusted ROAE 13.7%; special dividend $0.25 per share; leverage ratio 2.0x .

Q&A Highlights

Note: No Q2 call; highlights reflect recent Q1/Q4 calls.

Margins outlook: Management reiterated historical gain-on-sale margin range of ~330–340 bps; Q1 pickup mainly seasonality/timing .
MSR valuation dynamics: Rates drive MSR marks; origination-servicing model acts as natural hedge; MSR accounting timing explained (valuation included at lock; subsequent fair value at sale) .
Retention of MSRs and portfolio strategy: Target to normalize retention to 80–85% over time when conditions permit; balancing profitability and portfolio growth .
Competitive landscape and strategy: Focus on local purchase and first-time buyers; tech and brand drive productivity; organic recruiting and selective M&A continue .
Tariffs/home prices: Monitoring potential impacts; values stable in most markets; not expected to materially impact volume .

Estimates Context

EPS: Q2 Primary EPS $0.66 vs $0.43 consensus; significant beat likely to prompt upward revisions to FY EPS trajectories*.
Revenue: S&P Global “Revenue” $308.4M vs $297.0M consensus; note definitional differences vs company “net revenue” of $279.4M, but still a beat*.
Coverage depth: # of estimates — EPS (6), Revenue (5).
Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Adjusted EPS beat and origination profitability inflection are positive estimate-revision catalysts; expect analysts to raise near-term EPS and EBITDA estimates despite MSR mark volatility* .
Purchase-driven model (89% mix) and rising recapture rates underpin sustainable volume in a higher-for-longer rate environment .
Servicing remains a durable earnings pillar even with MSR volatility; UPB grew to $96.3B, supporting cash flow and future recapture .
Special dividend ($0.25) and pending Bayview merger elevate near-term corporate event risk/reward; lack of call tempers guidance clarity .
Margins moderated sequentially (329 bps) but align with historic range; watch Q3 seasonality and competitive pricing pressure .
Operating leverage evident: adjusted ROAE 13.7% and adjusted EBITDA $58.0M—signals improving profitability at scale .
For trading: EPS beat and corporate actions could support near-term sentiment; MSR mark sensitivity remains the primary swing factor for quarterly prints .

Guild Holdings Co (GHLD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary